As the island nation’s 16-million registered voters head to the polls on September 21, اa look at how the nail-biter election will unfold, and the role its neighbours and global partners like China will play.
By Rukshana Rizwie / Asian Dispatch / Sapan News
If the economic crisis of 2022 sent shockwaves through Sri Lanka and altered its political trajectory, the upcoming presidential election on September 21 promises to do more than just shift the course. Experts say it will chart an entirely new direction for the island nation.
As 16-million registered voters head to the polls, their choices will draw from the hard lessons learned from the events of 2022, ranging from the country’s bankruptcy to the lingering shadows of a decades-long armed ethnic conflict.
Sri Lankans will choose from 38 candidates vying for the presidency. Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe managed to stabilise the situation with loans and aid from the International Monetary Fund after taking charge of the country in 2022 when former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country after protesters took over his official residence – a moment quite similar to last month’s events in Bangladesh. However, his government continues to face high inflation and shortages of essential goods and medicines. The opposition calls it an “economic Armageddon” while Wickremesinghe asserts that this is the only way forward for Sri Lanka.
Now, the questions that loom large on the island nation’s psyche are: Will Sri Lanka slide further over the economic edge? Or is it capable of finding a progressive leader to steer it forward? In the larger scheme of things, what implications will these election results have on the world, and specifically South Asia?
The pan-Asia newsroom and reporting network Asian Dispatch and Sri Lanka’s Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR) hosted a webinar earlier this month to explore these compelling questions. Panellists at the webinar, titled ‘The Road Ahead: What Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections Means for the World’, were Dr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, the Executive Director of Center for Policy Alternatives, Colombo; Rathindra Kuruwita, Deputy News Editor at The Island, Colombo; Aditi Phadnis, Political Editor at Business Standard, India; and Kunwar Khuldune Shahid, Pakistan Correspondent at The Diplomat, India. Dilrukshi Handunnetti, Co-founder/Director of CIR, and a Sapan News Advisory Council member moderated the conversation.
A Sri Lankan view
“This election comes in the wake of the near-total collapse, signifying not just an economic crisis, but a crisis of governance. It’s the first election since the 2022 protests that ousted the Rajapaksas from government—though not from Sri Lankan politics,” said Dr. Saravanamuttu, of the Center for Policy Alternatives in his sobering assessment.
The real contest lies between three major contenders: The incumbent President Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
Wickremesinghe is credited for stabilising the country but remains unpopular due to tax policies that disproportionately burden the middle and lower classes. The competition is fierce.
Internationally, Sri Lanka’s political landscape has significant ramifications. Early this year, India, with its complex history of engagement with Sri Lanka, met with leaders of the NPP to discuss bilateral initiatives and development.
China remains deeply invested in the country too due to its financial backing of the Rajapaksa regime.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is cautiously monitoring developments in the strategically critical Indian Ocean region for its own interests.
View from India
“We are entering a period of great challenge and great disconnect,” said Aditi Phadnis of India’s Business Standard newspaper. Highlighting the growing concerns within Indian political circles about the upcoming Sri Lankan elections, she reflected on the longstanding issues that continue to strain the relationship between the two countries. She did not see “any political parties in Sri Lanka addressing this in any meaningful way.”
She raised the contentious issue of the 13th Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, a key point of tension between India and Sri Lanka. This Amendment, borne out of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987, calls for the devolution of central powers to provincial councils, a move toward federalism which is intended to empower Sri Lanka’s provinces, particularly in the Tamil-majority northern and eastern regions.
India sees the full implementation of this amendment as crucial, not only for the empowerment of the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka but also as a means to secure itself from any spillover of conflict that could destabilise the region, said Phadnis.
However, mainstream Sri Lankan leaders have been hesitant to fully implement the amendment, with its land and police powers which are seen as critical components of devolution. This hesitancy has perpetuated a sense of disenfranchisement among the Tamil community, creating further complications in the already complex relationship between the two nations.
Phadnis pointed to the fractures within the Tamil political landscape, and the split between Tamil parties such as the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) over their choice of presidential candidate. This division has weakened the Tamil political front and also complicated the broader issue of devolution of power. The ideological underpinnings of the Tamil Eelam movement, once driven by India’s Dravidian movement, have undergone significant fractures, leaving the Tamil cause fragmented.
India will make no effort to prop up any candidate that temper the demand for a separate homeland, she predicted. “That is all in the past, and India will not make the same mistake again.” The Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF), which operated in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 1990, even today, struggles to be recognised as an out-of-area peacekeeping force within India, she added.
She said that no one in India would want to see a repeat of the Easter bombings or the 2022 protests – popularly called Aragalaya’ in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan’s perspective
“Pakistan finds itself in a paradoxical position in the region,” said Shahid from The Diplomat, offering a nuanced perspective on his country’s relationship with its Southasian neighbours, particularly Sri Lanka.
While the country “has little to offer its South Asian neighbours in many respects”, the relationship with Sri Lanka is different, he explained. The two countries share a long history of security and military cooperation, and “Pakistan seeks a more balanced diplomatic approach with Sri Lanka, especially vis a vis India.”
Despite Pakistan’s limited trade agreements, Sri Lanka stands out an exceptional and positive trade partner. However, this trade pales in comparison to Sri Lanka’s trade with India, which is 10 times more in scale. Pakistan aspires to expand this aspect, seeking collaboration not just in economic and defence sectors but also on issues related to minorities.
The relationship between Pakistan and Sri Lanka has been somewhat lukewarm, he acknowledged, largely because both countries have historically maintained non-aligned stances on key regional issues. Sri Lanka, for example, has consistently maintained neutrality on sensitive issues like Kashmir, which has helped sustain diplomatic balance with India. This neutrality and diplomatic balance has been beneficial for Sri Lanka.
Pakistan has, in turn, supported Sri Lanka on the international stage, notably by voting against the 2021 UNHRC resolution that called for international investigations into the country’s war crimes, at the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva. This solidarity has strengthened the security collaboration between the two countries, with military drills, intelligence sharing, and arms supplies reaching unprecedented levels.
“It is in the realm of security that Pakistan has something tangible to offer Sri Lanka, and Sri Lanka values this assistance,” said Shahid.
China: The elephant in the room
“There are many questions surrounding what China has been doing in Sri Lanka for the last 2 years, and the answer – quite simply – is ‘Almost nothing,’” said Rathindra Kuruwita of The Island. “Over the last two years, China has been virtually silent, with minimal economic activity. The reasons for this are multifaceted, but one stands out: China’s engagement in Sri Lanka has historically varied depending on which political party is in power.”
The relationship between Sri Lanka and China dates back to 1950 when Sri Lanka became one of the first countries to recognise the People’s Republic of China. “This relationship has seen fluctuations based on the ruling party in Sri Lanka,” said Kuruwita. “When the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is in power, China typically provides more loans, aid, and political support as compared to when the United National Party (UNP) governs the country.”
China does not favour the current administration under President Wickremesinghe, said Kuruwita, explaining the noticeable lack of Chinese activity in the country. “China clearly doesn’t like Ranil’s administration, and until there’s a change in leadership, we shouldn’t expect much from China in terms of engagement,” he noted.
The outcome of the September 21 election could significantly impact China’s involvement in Sri Lanka, added Kuruwita,
“If JVP comes to power – despite their criticism of foreign engagement – China might find a soft spot for them. On the other hand, Sajith Premadasa, often seen as UNP 2.0, would likely continue the current trend of limited Chinese activity. It’s clear under whose leadership we can expect a shift in Chinese engagement after September 21.”
The aftermath of the September 21 election will have profound and long-lasting implications for the broader region, agreed the panellists.
As both Delhi and Beijing adopt a cautious wait-and-watch approach, the stakes are quite high in what is clearly a nail-biting electoral contest.
Rukshana Rizwie is a Sri Lankan Correspondent for Asian Dispatch. Her work covers an intersection of media technology, human rights, crime and defence. She is a former CNN producer and has worked extensively in the Middle East. This article originally published by Asian Dispatch.net is reproduced here with permission.
LEAD PHOTO: Over 16 million voters will go to the polls on September 21. Photo by Chathura Anuradha Subasinghe/Pexels
Note on Southasia as one word : Like Himal Southasian, we use ‘Southasia’ as one word, “seeking to restore some of the historical unity of our common living space, without wishing any violence on the existing nation states”.
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